Showing posts with label presidential race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential race. Show all posts

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Debate 1: So Where are the Radical Differences?





Tweedle Dum & Tweedle Dee?

1. The debate was the high ground in the campaign thus far, for both men. With exceptions few and far between, issue discussion dominated on both sides.

2. What surprised this writer was that the policy gaps between the two candidates was nowhere as wide as I thought they were. Obama had the confidence and manners to concede on several points that "John is correct," while John never uttered similar words about anything Barack said, despite the fact that these guys held positions on most issues that were more similar than different. And most of those differences were on the margins.

Both have been subjugated to the inevitable triumph of the Goldman Sachs Bailout Plan, though McCain presented some feeble, almost comical, resistance to it earlier in the week. Neither could present any alternative plan; both bought-- hook, line and sinker--the Great Depression II argument that Goldman Sachs has used as its weapon of choice to intimidate both parties into acquiescing with the transformation of Public wealth into Private wealth.

Perhaps it should be no surprise, as the Republican's Hank Paulson and the Obama Democrat's Robert Rubin are both ex-Goldman Sachs CEOs. [Note: Paulson announced last night that he has hired yet another ex-Goldman Sachs guy as his primary adviser on executing the bailout plan. Goody, goody.]

McCain's non-sequitor replies about $18 billion in earmarks, and Obama's loophole-closing rants did not speak to the fundamental rightness, fairness or necessity of the bailout.

4. The single most dramatic economic policy difference between the two regards tax policy. McCain is adamant about extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest, with Trickle Down, Supply Side ideology as its intellectual base; by not supporting the extension of the Bush tax cuts, Obama would effectively be raising taxes on households with minimum incomes of $250,000, with those below that number either having no change or a reduction in their tax rates. His is more a Demand Side, Keynesian approach.

3. Once the debate moved on to Foreign Policy there would be some fireworks, some fundamentally different policy disagreements, right? Wrong. A squabble developed about talking to our adversaries rather than giving them the silent treatment. But as Obama and McCain went back and forth a bit on this issue, it became apparant that their positions were fundamentally the same. Low level talks, said McCain, were fine; just no Summit talks right off the bat. Obama was in sync with that position as well.

Both were anxious to commit more US foot-soldiers to the next quagmire, Afghanistan. Again, some bickering about troop availability given the demands of Iraq, and a bit of back and forth on the advisability of attacking targets in Pakistan. But on the fundamental, strategic issue, these guys essentially agreed...again.

Kissinger, and/or the Council on Foreign Affairs, obviously are inputting to both campaigns. Ain't that great?

In summary, on the issues, McCain and Obama have some disagreements, but both occupy the center of political discourse, Obama coming to it from the Left, McCain from the Right.

The larger contrasts between the two were personal. I'll try writing another Hub on that later.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Is the Solution an Extra-Democratically Imposed Socialism?



I won't belabor a point I have been making since at least March on this blog and elsewhere. I'll just repeat it.

We are witnessing the greatest socialization of the American economy since The Great Depression take place, and it is being conducted by the hitherto laissez faire Administration of Republican George W. Bush.

It's also being done hastily, with no public debate, and its front men [Paulson, particularly] are representatives of the very institutions--banks, Wall St. speculation-houses--responsible for the crisis.

This entire dynamic is the greatest transfer of wealth from the many (US taxpayers) to the few (holders of debt instruments) in the history not only of the United States, but of the World.

Liberal Democrats and Libertarian Republicans should be united in their opposition to this theft. But thus far, except for the lunatic fringe (this site included), there are very few questions being raised by mainstream politicians of either party, let alone the mainstream media.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Gresham's Law


Gresham's Law has come to be most commonly expressed as "bad money drives out good money."

Has the current Presidential Election become a test case of its validity?

Friday, September 5, 2008

Post-Palin Campaign Slogans/Themes






The Obama campaign has wisely decided that Silence is best when it comes to dealing with Palin. There's no need to further legitimize her candidacy by treating her as if she were a serious contender for the Vice Presidency.

Furthermore, it's fairly obvious--at least to this writer--that Palin, her attractiveness and oratorical talent notwithstanding, is on a one-way road to self-destruction, the only question being, when?

The Republicans, led by the Straight Talker, have once again fallen back on their successful strategy that is composed of equal parts lying, sentimentality and confusion. It's worked before (Reagan and GW Bush twice.)

Simple themes for Obama ads and/or slogans:

DON'T LET THEM CONFUSE YOU---BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE HAPPENING EVERYDAY AROUND YOU, NOT WHAT THEY TELL YOU IS HAPPENING (a bit long-winded, yes?)

KEEP YOUR EYES ON REALITY

MORE OF BUSH/MCCAIN? LOOK AROUND.

BELIEVE YOUR LIFE, NOT THE REPUBLICAN/MCCAIN SPIN ON IT

UP IS NOT DOWN, COLD IS NOT HOT, DESPITE WHAT MCCAIN WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE

FOOL ME ONCE. SHAME ON YOU (BUSH 2000)
FOOL ME TWICE, SHAME ON ME (BUSH 2004)
FOOL ME THREE TIMES (MCCAIN/BUSH 2008)...NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

WHATS THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBAMA & MCCAIN/BUSH?
THEY THINK YOU'RE DUMB, OBAMA DOESN'T

IT'S YOUR CHOICE: BELIEVE YOUR OWN EYES OR BELIEVE MCCAIN'S

THE TRUTH DOESN'T NEED TO BE SPUN

I'll stop.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Palin-Pick: Nobody Wins, Nobody.




1. An Obama supporter could not, in one's wildest dreams, have imagined the Opposition putting forth a VP candidate as preposterous as SP.

2. Her selection, along with the earlier Paris/Britney and Charlton Heston/Moses ads, has reduced the democratic electoral process to nothing more than a farce. "Farce" is defined in the American Heritage Dictionary thus: A light dramatic work in which highly improbable plot situations, exaggerated characters, and often slapstick elements are used....

3. Though the SP pick makes it more likely that Barack will win the election, it's an episode that results in pure lose, especially to the credibility of our electoral process.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Who Destroyed Palin? The Media or Herself?





1. There was no particular need for outside sources to deconstruct Palin-as-President. She carries within herself her own destruction, as will become apparent if and when she ever speaks to the press.

2. She has used her gender to her own advantage during her meteoric political rise by assiduously constructing the image of the moose-eating, hockey-playing, gun-toting Super Mom who don't take shit from nobody, while still being a girlie-girl when it fit her need. It was her choice.

3. Although I find it reprehensible that some in the liberal media found it necessary to plaster photos of the daughter and her hapless boyfriend on their homepages, I blame not them (the media), but Palin herself. THIS IS POLITICS 2008, like it or not. Palin should have anticipated the media reaction to some of her "family," issues, and declined McCain's invitation out of concern for her family's privacy. She's only 44, not 72. She's got time.

4. Virtually everything uncovered and reported over the last four days regarding the alien quantity, Sarah Palin, has been true. Hard, raw, brutal, concrete facts. Hard to argue with facts.

5. Is the coverage sexist? That's the most difficult, and subjective, question to answer. Had, for example, a 44-year-old widowed male with 5 children, who had relentlessly thumped the drums of Family Values--as Palin has done-- to get himself elected to similar offices be discovered to have presided over a typical dysfunctional family, we he be subjected to the scorn and ridicule that Palin has had to endure thus far? I think he'd be ripped to shreds.

5a. Finally, Hillary as an example: Hillary never made the foundation of her campaigns the fact that she was a wifey and mommy. She was, but that was incidental in her case. Palin, on the other hand, has emphasized the mommy/wifey-ness angle, she's pandered to the Religious Right on that issue, and espouses grossly anti-feminist views on all the hot button "women's" issues.

The public destruction of Sarah Palin is sad; even more so is the humiliation of the two young people, innocents both.
Those two young people are pure victims, but they are not victims of the media---they are victims of Sarah Palin's blind ambition.

Is This What McCain Thinks?


"This election is not about issues," said Davis.--From the Washington Post, Voices

Davis is John McCain's campaign manager.

The wheels continue to fall off the Straight Talk Express.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Palin/Alaska: This Time It's Not Seward's Folly, It's McCain's


The following is from a transcript of an interview with a reporter from the newspaper identified below, according to the HuffingtonPost.



Anchorage Daily News

The reporter, Kyle Hopkins, asked, according to the transcript posted today, "Are you ready to be President Palin if necessary?"

"I am ... I am up to the task, of course, of focusing on the challenges that face America," she said. Palin then went on: "And I am very pleased with the situation that I am in, when, when you consider the situation now that Alaska will be in.

"And that is Alaska, and Alaskans will be allowed to contribute more to our great country and they'll be allowed to do that because I -- if we're elected -- will be in a position of opening the eyes of the country to what it is that Alaska is all about and what Alaska has to offer. So, I am happy to and very honored to be asked to do this. I know it's going to be great for Alaska."

No comment from me--or anyone else, for that matter--is necessary.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Palin Pick, Fourth Thought


Opined earlier that Palin might not survive as the final Republican VP-nominee.

Am starting to wonder if Sen. McCain himself will actually be the Republican Presidential nominee given the patently suicidal behavior the Palin choice represents.

Palin Pick, Third Thought


Maybe deep, deep down, John McCain, after seeing what it is like just being the official Candidate of his party, enduring the Secret Service always already there wherever he goes, having a muzzle put on his famously loquacious mouth...maybe John decided he really didn't need to end his life as the Prez, as, in a certain sense, a Prisoner of War again, only in a different cell.

Second Thought on Palin Pick


This may be a replay of the McGovern/Eagleton fiasco; same result--VP-nominee withdraws--but for different reasons, of course.

First Thought on Palin Selection


A reckless, thoughtless decision that reeks of both desperation and lack of judgment on McCain's part.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Reading The Speech



Below are this guy's selection of the highlights of the Candidate's excellent, inspirational acceptance speech, without quotation marks.

"This guy"--me--could weave these snippets into a tapestry that would be a comprehensive, positive advertising assault that even Hillary supporters--the "under-informed" voter--could embrace, and that could have enough magnetism to attract fence-sitters and some who currently lean toward McCain, but nevertheless have an IQ above 93.

I'm too tired and too in love to do that right now.

[I apologize for the arrogance inherent in this post.]

* an economy that honors the dignity of work.

* many of these plans will cost money, which is why I’ve laid out how I’ll pay for every dime

* programs alone can’t replace parents

* The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans — Democrats and Republicans — have built, and we are here to restore that legacy.

* As commander in chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

* America, we cannot turn back.

AIN'T THAT AMERICA!---SPRINGSTEIN, cited by "This Guy."

Watching O's Acceptance Speech W/O Sound



1. Since I have complete confidence that Barack Obama's words will be beyond reproach, I am watching the CNN live feed of The Speech with the sound turned off.

2. By doing this, my tiny brain can focus in on the visio-spatial aspects of the event.

3. I do not know who controls/directs the camera shots.

4. Thus far--1935, PDT--I am seeing a brown-skinned man in a black suit, white shirt with red-family tie standing in front of a brown and tannish background, with an occasional, small intrusion of two American flags on the screen.

5. I am not a graphic designer; I am not a set designer; I am not a professional color coordinator.

6. The Candidate has been blessed with stunningly telegenic good looks. Placing him in front of a background (color) where he essentially disappears at worst, or blends into the background at best, is an inexcusable blunder.

7. The Campaign obviously needs to re-staff the section that is charged with creating appropriate backdrops, sets, for Candidate presentation. It is inexcusable in this modern campaign age, particularly given the built-in advantage the Candidate has in his physical appearance vis a vis the Opposition Candidate, that this advantage is not being properly exploited. In fact, I would go as far as saying that this advantage has been negated by the choices made by those responsible in the Obama Campaign. [JFK, in much less sophisticated video-times, fully exploited his visual advantage over Nixon. The advantage Barack enjoys over John McCain in that realm is vastly more than that enjoyed by Kennedy over Nixon.]

8. Even with its flaws, the presentation of the Candidate tonight is likely to be interpreted by the media as successful/positive. The reason for that is that the Candidate is such a formidable visual presence, even sub-par performances by his staff can be transcended.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

From My Obama Campaign Website Blog


Why Supply Ammo to the Enemy?--Greek Columns and the Average Joe & Joan

Seen some glimpses of the stage-set for the acceptance speech.

Apparently, so have the Republicans.

I am not happy to say this, but it looks like Obama-Seal redux in the making.

This may be the only opportunity the campaign has to be completely in control of the shot, the visio-spatial image America is going to see of the Candidate as he makes, arguably, the most important stand-alone speech of the campaign.

American Avg Joe's and Jane's don't relate to stark white Greek Columns, and those are the people Barack needs to relate to right now. Anything that Hillary's base of support--the "under-informed" voter--can interpret as exotic or foreign, as not-American, will be seized upon by the Republicans and used against Obama, perhaps successfully.

I would sooner have had him appear in front of a Brick Wall than something as effete as Greek Columns, even if there is a subtle White House quality about them.

If I hear that the Man is going to be dressed in a toga....

Assuming the press reports I have read and seen are accurate, this is a tactical blunder that the Republican fear-mongers will feast on.

The set is set, presumably.

Maybe it will quickly fade into oblivion in the public's mind, like the Seal. I think not, unfortunately. If I were a Republican operative--which I am not!--I'd plaster these coming images all over America.

The Campaign should not be supplying its enemy with ammunition.

Obviously, Barack Obama himself had to sign-off on this decision. I am astonished he did so.

[Note: I am fully cognizant of the fact that something as trivial as the design of the set on which the Candidate accepts the nomination and presents himself to the voters for the first time as the Official Candidate should not

Monday, August 25, 2008

A Post of MIne From My Blog on the Official Obama Campaign Website

A Treasure Unveiled: Michelle Unwrapped


I did not see Michelle Obama's speech; I listened to it on the radio.

I thought the Candidate was an inspirational speaker; his wife should be running for the job!

This was another precedent-setting event: The First Lady Candidate gave a speech worthy of a Presidential candidate.

I would not want to be in Cindy McCain's (or Hillary Clinton's) shoes right now.

This woman--Michelle--can talk. This woman--clearly African-American in her appearance--has moved America forward with her words. How she and her husband have the courage to do what they are doing astounds me.

[Note: I have long been concerned that Michelle could be Barack's Achilles Heel in this contest. Her performance tonight, at least her audio, has relieved me of any concern. To be blunt: Michelle's command of Language, and the blatant intelligence evinced thereby, makes Hillary Clinton and all of the candidates of both parties, appear as light-weights in the heavy-weight Championship battle for the Presidency.]

Michelle in 2016.

Fabulous performance by a fabulous woman. (She ain't no empty-suit Hillary.)

VICTORY!
Post from Fredrick Bernanke's Blog:

A Treasure Unveiled: Michelle Unwrapped

I did not see Michelle Obama's speech; I listened to it on the radio.

I thought the Candidate was an inspirational speaker; his wife should be running for the job!

This was another precedent-setting event: The First Lady Candidate gave a speech worthy of a Presidential candidate.

I would not want to be in Cindy McCain's (or Hillary Clinton's) shoes right now.

This woman--Michelle--can talk. This woman--clearly African-American in her appearance--has moved America forward with her words. How she and her husband have the courage to do what they are doing astounds me.

[Note: I have long been concerned that Michelle could be Barack's Achilles Heel in this contest. Her performance tonight, at least her audio, has relieved me of any concern. To be blunt: Michelle's command of Language, and the blatant intelligence evinced thereby, makes Hillary Clinton and all of the candidates of both parties, appear as light-weights in the heavy-weight Championship battle for the Presidency.]

Michelle in 2016.

Fabulous performance by a fabulous woman. (She ain't no empty-suit Hillary.)

VICTORY!

Post From My Blog on Obama Campaign Website

Post from Fredrick Bernanke's Blog:


A Treasure Unveiled: Michelle Unwrapped


I did not see Michelle Obama's speech; I listened to it on the radio.

I thought the Candidate was an inspirational speaker; his wife should be running for the job!

This was another precedent-setting event: The First Lady Candidate gave a speech worthy of a Presidential candidate.

I would not want to be in Cindy McCain's (or Hillary Clinton's) shoes right now.

This woman--Michelle--can talk. This woman--clearly African-American in her appearance--has moved America forward with her words. How she and her husband have the courage to do what they are doing astounds me.

[Note: I have long been concerned that Michelle could be Barack's Achilles Heel in this contest. Her performance tonight, at least her audio, has relieved me of any concern. To be blunt: Michelle's command of Language, and the blatant intelligence evinced thereby, makes Hillary Clinton and all of the candidates of both parties, appear as light-weights in the heavy-weight Championship battle for the Presidency.]

Michelle in 2016.

Fabulous performance by a fabulous woman. (She ain't no empty-suit Hillary.)

VICTORY!

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Polls, Predictions and the Presidential Race


The Polls.

They have a certain scientificity about them that Op-Ed pieces don't.

Polls are grounded in Statistics, in the formal sense of the word as a subset of Mathematics. You can't argue with Mathematics.

As this is written, the polls, irrespective of the pollster, unanimously declare the presidential election to be a very close one...a virtual tie.

This astounds Republicans, of course, because they know all too well that they should be light-years behind the Democrats, given that their nominee is effectively the incumbent and therefore must defend the record the Republicans have assembled for themselves over the past eight years. That record needs no elucidation here.

The Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be interpreting the Polls as an indication that there is something amiss with their candidate, or least with his campaign strategy. They too think they should be light-years ahead, given the brutal and concrete facts that Bush & Co.'s tenure have bestowed upon the Democratic Party.

The poll question that matters most, and that causes all the hand-wringing on one side and jubilation on the other is: Who would you vote for for President of the United States today?

But away from Gallup, Zogby, Pew there are at least two other organizations (which I have blogged about and cited in the past) that are have been engaged in a similar yet different enterprise than the mainstream polling organizations.

These are www.intrade.com (intrade) and the University of Iowa's Prediction Markets (Iowa.)

Intrade and Iowa allow participants to buy and sell, with real money, "futures" contracts on various propositions, including but not limited to the outcome of the presidential race. Over an (statistically) significant period of time, these two market makers have had an uncannily high success rate when it comes to predicting outcomes of political races.

Iowa and Intrade are not asking their clientele, Who would you vote for today? Rather, they ask the question, Who will win the election? I have not heard of any mainstream polling polling organization that asks, or at least reports on, that question.

If one were to visit the websites of Iowa and Intrade (I will supply the url's at the end of this post), one would discover that one both sites the answer to that question is approximately, Obama: 60%, McCain: 40%.

This result is much more in line with what the socio-economic-political conditions of the United States in 2008 would lead an objective observer to surmise regarding the chances of the Democrat vs. the Republican candidate.

Why the disconnect between Intrade/Iowa and the mainstream pollsters?

Are the questions being asked so vastly different? If the pollsters would ask the same question as does Intrade/Iowa, would the results be the same?

There is one difference, at least, that can be pointed out. It doesn't cost anything to answer a Gallup pollster's question. But to "answer" an Intrade/Iowa question, one has to put one's money where one's mouth is and purchase a McCain or Obama "future's' contract.

Which produces the more accurate snapshot of reality?

Intrade: www.intrade.com
Iowa: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html